The GDP is likely to reduce by 8.6 percent for the quarter of July to September.
Technically, a country’s economy is said to hit a recession when its GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters or more. India’s economy had contracted by an unprecedented 23.9% in the first quarter (April-June) and now it is likely to be reduced by 8.6% in the second-quarter (July-September). For full fiscal year GDP is estimated a reduction by 9.5 %
Researchers have ‘nowcast’ the contraction in the second quarter to arrive at the estimates ahead of the official release of GDP data and their views are released in RBI’s monthly bulletin on 11th November 2020.