India Rating has said that the National Statistical Office’s (NSO’s) second advance estimates for FY22 may lower the current fiscal year’s real gross domestic product (real GDP) growth at 8.6 per cent.
NSO’s second advance estimates for FY22 is due on 18th February 2022. Earlier NSO had projected 9.2 percent in the first advance estimates on 7th January, 2022.
As per the ratings agency, the reason for this expected downward revision, is the recent upward revision in FY21 GDP contraction, to negative 6.6 per cent from negative 7.3 per cent.
“India Ratings’ estimate suggests that the second advance estimates may peg the FY22 real GDP growth at Rs 147.2 trillion. This would translate into a GDP growth rate of 8.6 per cent YoY for FY22 compared to 9.2 per cent forecast on 7th January, 2022. The major reason for the likely downward revision in GDP growth is the upward revision of FY21 GDP to Rs 135.6 trillion in the first revised estimate of national income,” the agency said.
According to the revised estimates, the GDP growth in FY20 now stands at 3.7 per cent compared to 4 per cent earlier, India Ratings added. While, the GDP growth of FY19 remains the same at 6.5 per cent.